June Dollar: The dollar has built onto overnight strength coming into this morning’s trading and remains on track to climb back above its 50 day moving average for the first time since March 15, which is in sharp contrast to the 4-month low that was reached early this week. Recent US data has been mixed but has been highlighted by better than expected results for GDP and a multi-year high in consumer confidence. Even if there are continued Washington difficulties with tax cuts and/or fiscal spending, the FED has been signaling that there will be at least two more rate hikes this year. Today’s US data could provide some hurdles for the Dollar, particularly with a private survey of consumer sentiment that could have a moderate down tick. Even so, the USD looks to finish the first quarter 2017 with the upper hand on most major currencies. Near term support is at 100.18 as the dollar should maintain a positive tone going into the US data window.
June Euro: The Euro appears to have put some brakes on this week’s downtrend but continues to hold onto a negative tone coming into this morning’s trading. Reports that ECB officials were reluctant to change monetary policy has been borne out today by today’s sluggish European data points, none more so that a euro zone CPI reading that was well below forecasts and reached its lowest year over year reading in 5 months. A positive turnaround in risk sentiment would clearly help that euro, but better economic number results from the region will be required in order to sustain any longer-term recovery move. Near-term resistance is at 10748 as the euro is likely to finish the week on the defensive.