RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

It’s been quite wet in a lot of the growing areas. With some cooler than normal temperatures. Even with the cool/wet temperatures, corn planting was surprisingly more successful than some initial assumptions. As of the April 24 progress report, 17% of the corn was planted, which is only 1% below average. It doesn’t take long to put the seed in the soil just as long as the ground is solid enough to handle the heavy planting equipment.

The problem is that the near term weather forecasts above normal precipitation and below normal temperature. There is still time to catch up if the weather gets better. The demand side of the equation is not that friendly. With South American crops getting bigger, competition will be very keen. There are also talks that China will import much less corn than it did last year as their farm policy has changed.

At this point, one has to assume that the corn will still be planted in a timely fashion. If this does occur, rallies will be short lived. Corn could go down to the low 300 area.


Corn Daily Chart

Gerry Plotkin