RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

September Silver is trading $15.50 down about 50 cents on the day. Metals are in heavy selling mode this morning. Silver is continuing to absorb all bullish news without responding positively. A lot of bearish factors are operating in silver as well. The Fed will continue to raise rates well into 2019, and the probability of raising rates in the December meeting is very high. From technical prospective, I have been harping about the need for silver to hold above a critical 16.00 level. A breach below that level sets up a long term bearish outlook. Any rally in silver will serve as selling opportunity rather than buying, unless silver closes above $16.75 to negate negative momentum. The commitment of traders with options report will be release later today. It will probably show a further reduction in long positions from the measurement done June 27, where it shows that the non-commercial and non-reportable traders had a combined net long 50,527 contract. The report that will be released today will probably show a reduction in long positions that doesn’t even take account today’s weakness. All in all, it is bad news for bulls. Silver was unable to benefit from North Korean geo-political situations, as well as any minor development in south China sea. As I write, President Trump is meeting with Russian President Putin. 

From a technical prospective, the long term chart below shows that yet again, the 15.00 level should hold. Silver will not violate the 15.00 level without a hell of a fight. DO NOT expect silver to take out 15.00 level any time soon.

Silver Monthly Continuation Chart

Silver Monthly Continuation Chart

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Eli Tesfaye

Senior Market Strategist
Eli started his career in the futures and options market while he was in graduate school finishing up his MBA in 2003. Eli specializes in Automatic trading strategies and systematic options trading strategies in futures market. He has been Series 3 license holder since 2005. Eli's is an avid reader, runner, and yoga practitioner.
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