Commodity market foresight is 2020 with our new 2020 Futures Outlook Guide, a complete resource for strategy and insight to help inform your commodity futures trading in 2020. Through detailed research, learn how markets are predicted to perform in the new year with an in-depth performance review of key markets, including Grain, Energy and Metals.
2019 brought about another year in which equity prices outperformed commodities. That adds to what was already the longest period ever of commodities underperforming equities. Looking ahead to the 2020 US elections, traders should expect significant volatility in the number of markets, with the potential for significant volatility in the late summer and early autumn.
2020 Grain Outlook
After an incredibly wet 2019 that affected the planting season, the grains are set for an interesting year in 2020. Old crop corn fundamentals look to be improving, but the 2020 crop could be burdensome. With the U.S./China Phase 1 trade deal signed, sealed, and delivered, it looks very much like China will be buying U.S. soybeans. Wheat is looking like it has limited upside as the world has seen record highs.
- World Corn Outlook- Stock Change vs. Usage Ratio
- U.S. Soybean Export Sales and Prodution
- U.S. Planted Wheat & World Wheat Production
- Weather and the Planting Season
2020 Energy Outlook
2019 ushered in the beginning of fundamental change in the global energy markets. While the US will continue to be the primary global producer on the “margin” and therefore a major driver of prices, there is evidence that consistent pricing below $60 per barrel has resulted in reduced drilling activity, and that could result in the US production miracle tapering off. A Major Fundamental Shift – US oil and natural gas production to peak.
- World production
- Supply vs. demand
- Fundamental changes
2020 Metals Outlook
Clearly, a large measure of the gold rally in 2018 and 2019 was gold safe-haven buying, but it also appears that classic bullish fundamental developments began to surface in May 2019, and those fundamentals are the foundation of the extension of our bullish view into 2020. Palladium’s unrelenting cycle of hitting new all-time highs continued in early 2020, but this could be the year that platinum moves into the leadership role. But it could also be a year when the PGM bull market exhausts itself. Copper was the least exciting, but most likely a sustained bull market for 2020.
- Production and Holdings
- Investment demand