2018 Futures Outlook

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RJO Futures is fired up to once again offer futures traders some of the best insight into the major commodity sectors on where the markets have been and what might be ahead for 2018.  The 2018 Futures Outlook isn't just a quick overview; each comprehensive paper included averages 20-pages of in-depth analysis and graphs. Papers included:

 

2018 Grain Outlook

The longer-term outlook for the corn market could turn more bullish if the weather conditions in South America do not improve soon. The drawdown in world ending stocks of nearly 22 million tonnes was one of the few positive fundamentals for the 2017/18 marketing year. The outlook in the soybean market for 2018 shows a massive uptrend in demand and a potential for burdensome stocks if the key world producers are blessed with normal weather. The outlook for 2018 wheat prices could be brighter than last year. Wheat was one of the few commodities to see year over year gains in 2017. Will Russia follows up last year’s record crop with another large crop? 

  • Imports/Exports

  • COT

  • Ending Stocks vs. Stocks / Usage

  • Weather and the Planting Season

 

2018 Energies Outlook

The outlook for 2018 energies suggests that the market has shifted into a supply-tightening mode. This view is based on the fact that as US production continues to post records, US crude oil inventories have seen the annual deficit soar to nearly 73 million barrels. The relative tightening of US supply is not limited to crude oil stocks, as product stocks have also registered annual deficits. However, further analysis shows that energy prices as a whole have factored in this tightening, with crude oil prices sitting at the highest levels since 2014.

  • World production

  • COT
  • Supply vs. demand

  • Fundamental changes

 

2018 Metals Outlook

It was surprising to see the gold market rally last year in the face of a strong rally in US equities. The lack of safe haven interest in gold was more than countervailed by weakness in the US dollar, which made gold, which is denominated in the US currency, attractive to the world. But it also seemed to suggest that the US central bank would be very careful about raising interest rates. Price measures have continued to be lukewarm in early 2018, but it does appear that synchronized global growth stands a good chance of lifting classic physical demand for the metals complex.

  • Production and Holdings

  • COT
  • Investment demand

  • Production/mining/supply

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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of RJO Futures and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by RJO Futures Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.