RJO FuturesCast

April 16, 2021 | Volume 15, Issue 15

The Markets

Metals - Gold Being Lifted by Dollar Weakness

Impressive rally in gold this week takes out key resistance levels and potentially a very positive weekly close. At the time of this writing June gold is trading $1,783! The next key level on the way up is $1,788. A close above $1,788 will encourage the gold bulls and likely drive this rally towards the $1,820-$1,825 range. I’m confident that gold has bottomed and that the rally will continue and likely spend some time consolidating in the $1,820 to $1,850 range.

The US dollar has been trending lower for weeks now and that obviously helps support gold prices, however, it wasn’t until the dollar dropped below .9200 that gold was able to breakout and close above $1,760. So, these are two key levels that you must pay attention to. Gold must hold above $1,760 and the dollar needs to stay below .9200.

Platinum has a base in the $1,150 to $1,155 range. The trend is sideways to up. A close above $1,200 in the July platinum is needed to rekindle the rally back towards $1,250. The next test of $1,250 should quickly carry the rally to $1,300.

Gold Jun '21 Daily Chart
If you have any questions or would like to discuss the markets further, please feel free to contact me at 800-826-4124 or fcholly@rjofutures.com.
Energy - Oil Near 4-Week High

Oil prices are nearing a four-week high as the global demand outlook continues to improve with Chinese daily crude processing jumping 19.7% on the back of strong demand for fuel. Oil inventories fell to the lowest since February and refinery utilization reached the highest since the onset of the pandemic with East Coast stockpiles falling to the lowest in 30 years, according to the EIA. This comes amid an upward revision to the global demand forecast by OPEC as well as a report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) that global supply and demand is set to rebalance in the back half of the year. Oil volatility (OVX) has continued to fall, now down nearly 15% on the week, as the market remains bullish trend with today’s range seen between 58.93 – 64.26.

Crude Oil Jun '21 Daily Chart
If you have any questions or would like to discuss the markets further, please feel free to contact me at 800-438-4805 or aturro@rjofutures.com.
Softs - Coffee Rebounds on Tight Outlook

Reports continue to paint the picture of a very bullish outlook for coffee prices, due to a major production deficit. Our friends at the Hightower Group have stated that “the bullish supply outlook for the 2021/22 is highlighted by a likely 30% or larger decline in Brazil’s output, so seeing Brazil’s March coffee exports fall short of last years total could indicate that farmers may be starting to hold back on marketing their remaining supply”. This should pave the way for a revisit to the 1.40 level in short time.

From a technical perspective, May coffee has is beginning a reversal up H&S pattern with a break above the pattern’s 1.30 neckline. If this pattern follows through to completion, it carries a measuring objective to 1.39. The head of this pattern has found support and clearly taken a bounce from the 200-day moving average, found at the 1.20 level.

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Coffee May '21 Daily Chart
Agricultural - Grain Futures Update w/Stephen Davis - 04/16/2021
Stephen Davis discusses the latest news moving the grain markets including some interesting weather patterns that are impactin grains in the Mid-West.
Currency - Bitcoin Futures Update w/Adam Tuiaana - 04/13/2021

Adam provides viewers with insight to the April Bitcoin futures contract ahead of the Coinbase IPO.

Equity - Indices Print New ATH's

Stocks continue their charge higher. We saw new all-time highs in the Nasdaq, S&P, and Dow, while the Russell is still a bit under five percent from its 3/15 high. This recent run higher has been impressive to say the least. The S&P put in its most recent low on 3/25.  Since then, the market has gained nearly 9% off that low. The rally included a twelve-session run of higher lows on the daily chart. That streak was broken on Tuesday, but we also saw a new ATH close that afternoon.  For the same time period, the Dow has rallied 6.8% from its low, and the Nasdaq is up 11.5%. 

Data continues to be encouraging. Retails sales and jobless claims yesterday were impressive. Consumer sentiment missed the lofty expectation of 89.0 this morning, but the 86.5 reading is still an improvement from the 84.9 reading we saw in March. Housing data remains strong and should continue to be as weather improves. The Fed has very little concern about the early warning signs of inflation and will continue to be accommodative. Stimulus money is seemingly everywhere, and Americans are getting vaccinated at high rates. While corona virus cases haven’t declined to the levels many would have hoped for just yet, they’re likely to do so. Consumers also saved 1.7 trillion dollars not traveling, going to restaurants, etc.  As they continue to feel safer, you can bet they’ll be looking to put some of that to use.  While there are also a great deal of reasons to be concerned about these levels we are seeing (and continue to build upon), the market seems to have little concern for them in the short-term.  

E-mini S&P 500 Daily Chart
If you have any questions or would like to discuss the markets further, please feel free to contact me at 800-669-5354 or bdixon@rjofutures.com.
Economy - Macro Now w/Alexander Turro - 04/12/2021
Alexander Turro discusses the latest news surrounding the macro markets as we begin to gear up for summer.
If you have any questions or would like to discuss the markets further, please feel free to contact me at 800-438-4805 or aturro@rjofutures.com.

Coming Up Next Week...

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