With the sharpness and degree of Monday’s follow through
selloff from last week’s seventy-five-dollar correction we can say the market
was extremely over sold and that this bounce was in order. However, one could
also say that a retest of Monday’s low is a likely scenario and that this
recovery bounce is another opportunity to sell gold. Keep an eye on the US
Dollar. The Dollar has been capped by good resistance at .9320 recently. If the
Dollar breaks out above .9320, gold will slide back to $1,700 pretty easily.
Also, keep in mind that the gold market was spooked by talk of tapering and we
continue to see inflationary data that should prompt gold traders to pressure
the market down again.
As I like to point out, “it’s usually just a level on the chart, that turns the market around.” Having said that, I see $1,765 as “old support, becomes new resistance.” Just look at the daily chart below. If gold can manage a close above $1,775 that would be friendly to the gold bulls. A drop below $1,742 would indicate a continuation of the short term down trend. Below $1,720 is bearish.
If you have any questions or would like to discuss the markets further, please feel free to contact me at 800-826-4124 or email@example.com. Energy - Will Recent Covid-19 Outbreaks Slow Crude Oil Demand?×
Will Recent Covid-19 Outbreaks Slow Crude Oil Demand?
On Monday crude oil continued last weeks slide lower down to $65.15 before closing up off its lows at $66.85 on the day. Mid-week we saw a recovery with a weekly high of $69.62 but at this time it looks like it will end the week on a weaker note. Pressure is being brought on by talks that OPEC will once again increase production and also that a ramp up in Covid outbreaks will slow the demand side of things. Despite these pressures we saw Sept crude bounce off support at $65 and trade back to the middle of the $65-$75 range. There are some global demand discrepancies between OPEC and the International Energy Agency which is causing the market to have some uncertainty. US production also remains lower than normal. Resistance comes in right above the $70 level and a breakthrough of that is needed to see crude oil push back to recent highs of $75. If wider global shut downs due to Covid or increased production from OPEC nations come to fruition, expect to see lower trade back down with $65 and $61 as the next downside targets.
If you have any questions or would like to discuss the markets further, please feel free to contact me at 800-826-2270 or firstname.lastname@example.org. Softs - S-T Coffee Divergence Could Re-Expose Secular Bull×
S-T Coffee Divergence Could Re-Expose Secular Bull
By: RJO Market InsightsPosted 08/10/2021
On the tiniest of scales, yesterday's recovery above 04-Aug's 178.65 initial counter-trend high detailed in the 240-min chart below confirms a bullish divergence in momentum. On the heels of late-Jul's relative plunge, early-Aug's piddly recovery attempt falls well within the bounds of a mere corrective hiccup ahead of a resumption of this relative plunge. Nonetheless, until or unless mitigated by a relapse below 02-Aug's 171.60 low, further corrective rebound OR the resumption of the secular bull trend are expected. Per such, this 171.60 level serves as our new short-term risk parameter from which non-bearish decisions like short-covers and cautious bullish punts can be objectively based and managed by shorter-term traders with tighter risk profiles.
The compelling thing about last week's 171.60 low and admittedly short-term risk parameter is that it comes against the backdrop of a massive, arguably accelerating secular bull trend where the relapse from 26-Jul's 215.20 high can, at this point, only be considered another correction within the secular bull. Against the backdrop of this secular bull trend, the daily log scale chart above shows the area marked by the (170.50) 61.8% retrace of Jul's 147.65 - 215.20 rally and 168.65 former resistance-turned-support as a logical support candidate. As yesterday's bullish divergence in short-term momentum rejected/defined a level (171.60) just above this pivotal area, an acute risk/reward opportunity from the bull side is presented. For IF late-Jul's exaggerated relapse/correction ended at 171.60, a resumption of the secular bull trend to new highs above 215.20 would be expected. That's quite the reward for a risk to levels just below 171.60.
an even longer-term perspective, the monthly log chart below shows the
magnitude of this secular bull trend. MINIMALLY, commensurately
larger-degree weakness below 06-Jul's 147.65 larger-degree
corrective low remains required to break even the portion of the bull from
Nov'20's 102.15 low, let alone threaten the 27-month secular bull
These issues considered, shorter-term traders whipsawed out of bullish exposure following 30-Jul's bearish divergence in short-term momentum are advised to return to a bullish policy and exposure from the 178.65-area OB with a failure below 171.60 required to negate this specific all and warrant its cover. Longer-term commercial players remain advised to maintain a bullish policy with a failure below 168.65 required to defer or threaten this call enough to warrant its cover. In lieu of weakness below at least 171.60 and preferably below 168.65, a resumption of the secular bull trend is anticipated.
Agricultural - Grains - BREAKOUT!×
Grains - BREAKOUT!
By: Michael Sabo, Senior Market StrategistPosted Aug 13, 2021 10:36AM CT
weeks of consolidation the corn market finally broke out yesterday when the
USDA released its Supply/Demand Report and Crop Production Report. Last week I advised
that the “real” would probably come from Thursday Reports, that proved to be
the case. USDA lowered its yield from 179.5 to 174.6 which was below the range
of estimates hence the strong move higher. Today’s price action has September corn
trading inside yesterday’s daily range. I would expect the market to continue
to push higher over the next week as the market carves out a new range now that
we have better insight to the yield reduction. Short-term technical indicators
have turned up suggesting it could be time to be long, couple this with the
bullish fundamental news we received yesterday, and the bulls have a lot to be
happy about. With that said, be cautious as the large trading ranges could come
back into play and easily push “weak” longs out of the market.
last week’s article I advised the key numbers to watch were $5.81 ½ on the upside
and $5.19 ½ on the downside. Well, yesterday the market surged through $5.81 ½.
This signifies a strong upside technical breakout in my opinion and should start
the market on a new
I would suggest using an option strategy to manage your futures position risk or an outright option strategy. Implied option volatility recently came down but is still relatively high compared to historical vol levels. You may want to incorporate some short options into your strategy in a calculated risk manner such as bull or bear option spreads. I have 25 years of grain market experience, please feel free to call me at 1-800-367-7290 for more details or to discuss in depth trading strategies. Also be sure to check out my past weekly grain market updates posted on our website.
If you have any questions or would like to discuss the markets further, please feel free to contact me at 800-367-7290 or email@example.com. Economy - Post-Market Futures Outlook w/John Caruso - 08/09/2021×
Post-Market Futures Outlook w/John Caruso - 08/09/2021
By: John Caruso, Senior Market StrategistPosted Aug 9, 2021 5:16PM CT
John Caruso discusses the day that was in the futures market including the big news from this weekend regarding a large selloff in the gold and silver markets. If you have any questions or would like to discuss the markets further, please feel free to contact me at 800-669-5354 or firstname.lastname@example.org.