Technical analysis and trading strategy applicable to these markets
New Special Report: Inflation, How Much is Too Much?
With so much money in the market, coupled with weakened supply chains and workforces due to the fallout of Covid-19, we are seeing a rampant run on inflation. Prices from everything to lumber, oil, and groceries are up. Learn why this is happening, how long it will go on for, and how to protect yourself with this Special Report!
Metals - Gold on Pace for Best Week Since August×
Gold on Pace for Best Week Since August
By: RJOF Editorial TeamPosted 10/15/2021
Gold futures have fallen early this morning as we saw treasury yields rise and it’s threatening to halt a 3 consecutive session rise. However, gold is still on pace to have its best week in nearly 5-months. December gold is currently trading at $1772.30 at the time of this writing, about $28 off the recent highwater mark of about $1800. All-in-all December gold is still on pace to make a 1% gain on the week, so gold bulls can’t be too upset. Analysts attest that the recent run in gold has been partially fueled by the diminished value of the dollar as the market is flooded with money coupled with the Fed holding interest rates artificially low. This could change soon though as the Fed has signaled they will taper their bond buying in the coming months. Keep an eye on gold today and the coming weeks and check back for more updates.
Oil prices continued to inflate higher as of Friday morning and are set to for a weekly gain of more than 2% on increasing signs of tightening supply. This comes as OPEC+ dismissed the notion of additional supply coming online coupled with the IEA noting that increasingly higher gas prices could boost oil demand with their expectation that oil demand is set to jump half million barrels per day (bpd), which would result in a supply crunch of around 700k bpd through the end of the year. The IEA noted in its monthly report that oil demand is forecasted to increase by 210,00 bpd in 2022 and oil demand to reach 99.6 million bpd. This comes as weekly US crude stocks rose by 6.088mb, much greater than the expected 702k barrels. Contributing to the build was a slowdown in refinery utilization (-2.9%) and refinery input (-684bpd). Oil volatility (OVX) continues to breakdown to cycle lows with the market remaining bullish trend with today’s range seen between 76.29 – 83.24.
If you have any questions or would like to discuss the markets further, please feel free to contact me at 800-438-4805 or firstname.lastname@example.org. Softs - Coffee Continues to Grind Higher, In A Position to Test Old Highs×
Coffee Continues to Grind Higher, In A Position to Test Old Highs
By: Tony Cholly, Senior Market StrategistPosted Oct 13, 2021 8:36AM CT
Coffee prices have jumped more than 10% over the span of one week, as supply-side developments both near and longer term have fueled this rally. Although the coffee market is beginning to reach overbought levels, it looks to have much more upside left to go before this rally runs out of steam. Brazil could see crops negatively impacted by extensive drought conditions and frosts during July. Reports that farmers may default on over one million bags in deliveries have also ramped up near term supply anxiety. These supply issues are exacerbated by the global shipping container shortage that continues to fuel coffee’s longer-term uptrend. Rising overbought levels warrant some caution for bullish traders. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. There could be more upside follow through. Resistance comes in at 21940 and 22355. Support comes in at 20685 and 19845.
If you have any questions or would like to discuss the markets further, please feel free to contact me at 800-826-2270 or email@example.com. Agricultural - Grains - Corn Breakout This Week×
Grains - Corn Breakout This Week
By: Michael Sabo, Senior Market StrategistPosted Oct 15, 2021 9:54AM CT
Last week I advised traders on
the following “This week is showing us another inside week setup. Traders should watch for a break above $5.49
or a break below $5.23, basically last week’s range.” Sure enough, the
market broke through $5.23 and made a weekly low of $5.06 ¾ before reversing.
At the time of this writing, December corn is trading around $5.26 ¼ with a
weekly high of $5.34. It appears the market still has strong support around the
$5.00 area. If we see corn close in the upper 1/3 of the daily trading range we
may see some follow through to the upside early next week. The USDA Supply
Demand and Crop Production Reports that were released on Tuesday were inside
the range of estimates but leaned slightly bearish. I still remain cautiously
bullish even with the same pullback we saw this week. In my opinion to really
get the bulls excited we would need to see December corn trade up above $5.49.
The “big picture” numbers remain the
same and probably will for some time. I firmly believe a break below $4.96 could
give the bears control of the market and a break above $6.39 ½ on the upside may
have enough bulls behind it to propel corn to all-time highs. There are several
minor areas of support and resistance inside this range that can help with
short term market direction if violated. Call me directly at 1-800-367-7290 for
more in-depth discussion on these numbers and to discuss trading strategies
specific to your situation.
I would suggest using an option
strategy to manage your futures position risk or an outright option strategy.
Implied option volatility has come down quite a bit from its most recent highs
mainly due to the consolidation and tighter trading ranges. I have 25 years of grain
market experience, feel free to call or email with any questions you may have. Be sure to check out my archived weekly grain
market insight articles posted on our website.
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If you have any questions or would like to discuss the markets further, please feel free to contact me at 800-367-7290 or email@example.com. Interest Rates - Treasuries Trending Down×
Looking at the December 10-year note, overnight we had a high of 131-160 and a low of 131-06 and currently trading 131-12. This morning we had PPI, which came out a tad weaker than expected which has given the note a mild boost in early trading. The trend is down in treasuries with a “sell the rally” mentality firmly in place as inflation continues to creep higher with crude reaching 81.68 overnight and natural gas currently up 21-cents as we speak. This week we have seen many fed speakers come on tape and suggest that the Fed should start to taper as early as November which should keep a lid on prices for the remainder of the week. The continued talking of tapering is the Fed slowing down the purchases of bonds which has been going on since the pandemic in early 2020. The Feds continued the buying of bonds which is keeping rates artificially low, creating a bubble that is ready to burst. Being able to pick the exact time is impossible but the fed has created a monster and I believe has cornered itself while inflation related commodities have skyrocketed. It’s not a good position as investors have seen the yield on treasuries jump om the last two weeks, so I would encourage traders to be on guard as more fed officials express their desire to begin to taper.
If you have any questions or would like to discuss the markets further, please feel free to contact me at 800-826-2270 or firstname.lastname@example.org. Equity - Stocks Continue to Rally×
Stocks Continue to Rally
By: Bill Dixon, Senior Market StrategistPosted Oct 15, 2021 10:25AM CT
The markets are higher for the third day in a row as we get
ready to call it a week. Inflation is
back in the news, and it appears that it is trending more so than it is
transitory. Retail sales clocked in at
the higher end of the expectations (0.7%) M/M despite labor shortages, material
shortages, and supply chain disruptions driving prices higher (.04% M/M and
5.4% Y/Y). While there is hope for the
labor side of things given the expiration of benefits for many, it seems as
though it will be a while before things are anywhere near back to normal.
Earnings season is back in full swing. Thus far, results have been positive with most of those reporting beating analysts’ estimates. Despite some of the obvious headwinds that persisted through the last quarter, the consumer remained quite active. I would expect strong earnings to continue to be released as a result. However, consumer sentiment came in this morning at a mere 71.4. That is the worst reading since 2011 as consumers are starting to show signs of concern over inflation.
If you have any questions or would like to discuss the markets further, please feel free to contact me at 800-669-5354 or email@example.com. Economy - Futures Market Outlook w/John Caruso - 10/14/2021×
Futures Market Outlook w/John Caruso - 10/14/2021
By: John Caruso, Senior Market StrategistPosted Oct 14, 2021 8:40AM CT
After seeing a rather soft PPI number and a jobless claims number that has fallen below 300k we are seeing a pretty strong rally in the equities. It will be interesting to see how the day plays out. If you have any questions or would like to discuss the markets further, please feel free to contact me at 800-669-5354 or firstname.lastname@example.org.