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There you have it! Proof that gold needs the Fed’s easy
money policy to rally. At least for the short term. Bad economic data leads
traders to believe that the Fed cannot take away the punch bowl just yet.
However, I still believe that the next big bull market in gold will be driven
by long term inflation. How long will they try to tell themselves that this is
“transitory”? How long exactly is transitory? How much more evidence does the Fed
need to see in terms of inflated costs?
But let’s focus on today. The monthly jobs report was a big miss from what the market was looking for. The market was expecting added jobs in September to be in the neighborhood of 475,000 to 500,00. What we got was 194,000 jobs added. A big miss. The lowest number this year! So, a big miss like that ahead of next months Fed Announcement leads traders to believe that the Fed will not need to get aggressive with tapering or move projected rate hike dates up. Gold is up $22.00 after this bad jobs number. If gold today can close above $1,781, the 5- day moving average, that would be considered friendly to the gold bulls. Next technical level to the upside would then be $1,800.
If you have any questions or would like to discuss the markets further, please feel free to contact me at 800-826-4124 or email@example.com. Metals - Silver Looking to Rebound×
Silver Looking to Rebound
By: Eli Tesfaye, Senior Market StrategistPosted Oct 8, 2021 11:22AM CT
The Silver market is looking to set up for a rebound. Currently, the market is trading 10 cents positive. The big news is that Senate extended the debit limit by two more months. I think President Biden will get his bill passed down the road, and there may be an inflation pressure around the corner. Current price action will probably invite some bargain hunters to get involved on the long side at these price levels.
The technical landscape slightly tilted in favor of the bull camp. A close over 23.00 will signal near-term lows are in but do not rule out a "break to the downside below 20.00" and a subsequent reversal. Markets tend to do this when they are confirming lows. Reach out to me if you want to approach this market using options. Also, there is a mini contract for silver if you're going to test the waters.
If you have any questions or would like to discuss the markets further, please feel free to contact me at 800-367-7290 or firstname.lastname@example.org. Energy - Oil Taps $80 a Barrel for the First Time Since 2014×
Oil Taps $80 a Barrel for the First Time Since 2014
Oil prices continued to ramp higher on Friday morning as the market assess the possibility of additional consumption of global petroleum through the substitution of higher priced gas to oil as well as the uncertainty of the US releasing their strategic reserves. Lending support was the return of Chinese demand from holiday as well as reports from OPEC+ on Monday that that they will not be increasing monthly production by more than initial expectation of 400k barrels per day. Crude stocks increased for the second week in a row, building 2.345 million barrels with stocks now 72.040 million barrels below last year and 32.037 million barrels below the five-year average, according the EIA. This comes on the back of exports falling to the lowest since early August to 2.114m bpd as well as imports increasing to 7.035m bpd, the highest since mid-July. The market remains bullish trend with today’s range seen between 73.46 – 79.81.
If you have any questions or would like to discuss the markets further, please feel free to contact me at 800-438-4805 or email@example.com. Softs - Cocoa Supply, The Weaker Euro, and The U.S. Debt Ceiling×
Cocoa Supply, The Weaker Euro, and The U.S. Debt Ceiling
By: Peter Mooses, Senior Market StrategistPosted Oct 8, 2021 8:50AM CT
it appears the U.S. will extend their debt limit in the coming days markets are
finding support. We’ve seen volatility in the global markets over the past week
stemming from debt concerns, weakness in the Euro and split news about the
progress in the battle against Covid. As more individuals get vaccinated
against Covid, it appears numbers in cases, hospitalizations and deaths are
headed in the right direction – but this depends where you are looking. There
are still many parts of the world struggling to recover physically and
economically after the past year and half. As we enter the fall and winter
seasons and holiday season, we’ll see what the trajectory is of the virus.
The equity markets, both European and U.S. have provided strain on commodities. Cocoa has managed to stage a rally earlier this week, trying to hit a new high of 2800 – but we have seen a big pullback the past few sessions. The key for the bulls is if production will really be lower than anticipated. This key will guide the cocoa market to start Q4.
If you have any questions or would like to discuss the markets further, please feel free to contact me at 800-826-4124 or firstname.lastname@example.org. Agricultural - Corn - Another Inside Week×
Corn - Another Inside Week
By: Michael Sabo, Senior Market StrategistPosted Oct 8, 2021 10:38AM CT
Three weeks ago, I advised
traders on the following “Below is a weekly December corn chart, as one can see,
this week December corn is trading inside last weeks price range. If it closes
out the week this way (and I think it will) next week’s key short-term numbers
to watch will be $5.38 ½ on the upside and $5.06 ½ on the downside. I would
recommend traders take their cue from the breakout.” The was the week of September 20. Last week December
corn broke above the $5.38 ½ level and moved to a high of $5.48 ½ before
backing off and closing the week at $5.41 ½ - while we didn’t see corn make
huge moves to the upside it was still a very solid showing for the week and
more importantly confirmed the chart model I am following. This week is showing
us another inside week setup. Traders should watch for a break above $5.49 or a
break below $5.23, basically last week’s range. I am still cautiously bullish
and believe Dec corn has additional upside if the fundamentals continue to
remain in the range of estimates or come in bullish. On Tuesday October 12th
USDA Supply Demand and Crop Production Reports will be released at 11am cst,
make sure you have adequate risk management strategies in place to protect your
positions as this market seems to be “coiling up”!
The “big picture” numbers remain the
same and probably will for some time. I firmly believe a break below $4.96 could
give the bears control of the market and a break above $6.39 ½ on the upside may
have enough bulls behind it to propel corn to all-time highs. There are several
minor areas of support and resistance inside this range that can help with
short term market direction if violated. Call me directly at 1-800-367-7290 for
more in-depth discussion on these numbers and to discuss trading strategies
specific to your situation.
I would suggest using an option
strategy to manage your futures position risk or an outright option strategy.
Implied option volatility has come down quite a bit from its most recent highs
mainly due to the consolidation and tighter trading ranges. I have 25 years of grain
market experience, feel free to call or email with any questions you may have. Be sure to check out my archived weekly grain
market insight articles posted on our website.
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If you have any questions or would like to discuss the markets further, please feel free to contact me at 800-367-7290 or firstname.lastname@example.org. Equity - Stocks Mixed This Morning×
Stocks Mixed This Morning
By: Jeff Yasak, Senior Market StrategistPosted Oct 8, 2021 9:28AM CT
U.S. stock futures
are mixed this morning as traders took in a key report on the labor market’s
recovery. The S&P was down slightly a reversal from a third straight day of
gains. The rally was part due to the Senate leaders reaching an agreement on
raising the government borrowing limit into December, avoiding a default as
early as this month. They voted to
increase by $480 billion and it will head to the House of Representatives
today. With the budget temporarily out
of the way the focus was switched to the latest job report which showed another
miss on payroll gains following a disappointing August number. Non-farm payrolls only rose by 194,000,
missing the expected 500,000 number. The
unemployment number fell more than expected to 4.8% but it was followed by a
poor labor force participation rate of 61.6% versus 61.7% in August. Even with
the payroll miss in September the report may still be strong enough to trigger
a tapering from the Federal Reserve.
Jerome Powell said it would only take a “reasonably good report” in
September to meet the Fed’s threshold.
Support today is 435500 and 432500 with resistance at 442500 and 446000.
If you have any questions or would like to discuss the markets further, please feel free to contact me at 888-861-1656 or email@example.com. Economy - Futures Market Update w/John Caruso - 10/07/2021×
Futures Market Update w/John Caruso - 10/07/2021
By: John Caruso, Senior Market StrategistPosted Oct 7, 2021 11:25AM CT
John Caruso comments on the strong rally we are seeing the equity markets today and how it could shake out the rest of the day and into next week. If you have any questions or would like to discuss the markets further, please feel free to contact me at 800-669-5354 or firstname.lastname@example.org.