Lack of Rain for Next 7 Days Leading Beans Lower in the Short-Term

September 26, 2016 8:24AM CDT

With the 7 day forecast showing very little rain for Illinois and no rain for Iowa and Minnesota, the markers look vulnerable to more downside. Crops near rivers in Iowa and a few isolated areas of standing water may experience some damage to their crops, but not enough to offset the increased harvest and yield reports.  A Champaign county yield over the weekend came in at 93 bushels/acre.  Given the recent yield reports, the drier weather forecast and active harvest over the weekend for the central and Eastern Midwest, selling pressure could be significant. November soybeans fell below the 200 day moving average on Friday and traded as low as 9524. The market pushed lower on news that China will place a 33.8% anti-dumping duty on dried distillers grains imported from most of the largest US companies.  This could pressure the soymeal.  The continued theme of sky high early soybeans yields have become well known by the trade, and along with a drier forecast for the Western belt have contributed to the recent weakness.  Given the enormous yield reports and potential for weaker demand in the meal, consider selling July 17 soybeans near 989 with a longer term objective of 8810.  Selling resistance for November beans comes in at 9672 with 921 as next downside target.

Soybeans Daily

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