E-Mini S&P Vindicates with New All-Time Highs

November 22, 2016 2:14AM CST

Despite even one of the most divisive, disappointing, embarrassing (pick the adjective) campaigns to decide the next leader of the free world and every ramification that stems from it, the market's break above 23-Aug's 2192 intra-day all-time high confirms our long-term bullish count that suggested Aug-Nov's sell-off attempt is just another correction within the secular uptrend shown in the monthly log scale chart below.  On this massive scale Feb's 1802 low remains as the very long-term corrective low and risk parameter the market needs to sustains gains above to maintain the secular advance.

Emini Monthly

On a more practical scale, the weekly log chart below shows the market sustaining Jul-Aug gains above a preponderance of former Feb-thru-Jul resistance from the 2105-to-2134-range save for the overnight spasm that accompanied the U.S. presidential election.  As we'll detail below, we have identified 04-Nov's 2079 low as the latest larger-degree corrective low and key risk parameter the market needs to sustain gains above to maintain our broader bullish policy.

Emini Weekly

Emini Daily

The daily log scale bar chart above shows the plunge to 2028 the market took overnight as a result of early surprising results that showed Trump gaining the upper hand.  By the time the election were results were final and the market closed the next day, the market was looking down on the prior month's worth of price action and had confirmed a bullish divergence in momentum that, in fact, broke Aug-Nov's downtrend.

The daily log scale close-only chart below that cleans out intra-day noise clearly shows a clear 3-wave and thus corrective sell-off attempt from 23-Aug's 2186 all-time high daily close, but also that this sell-off stalled at the exact 50% retrace of Jun-Aug preceding 1982 - 2186 rally.  As 04-Nov's 2081 low close certainly serves as a pertinent low, support and risk parameter to a bullish count, we believe that day's 2079 intra-day low serves as one also.  09-Nov's 2028 low is considered a "rogue low" with no technical merit.

Emini Daily

From an even shorter-term perspective, the 240-min chart below details Nov's developing uptrend and an arguably slower rate of ascent over the past week-and-a-half.  A failure below 10-Nov's 2147 smaller-degree corrective low and short-term risk parameter remains required to confirm a bearish divergence in momentum of a scale sufficient to break Nov's portion of the secular advance.  In lieu of such weakness the trend remains up on all scales and should not surprise by its continuance or acceleration as there are NO resistance levels above the market since it broke to new all-time highs yesterday.  ALL levels of any technical merit currently only exist BELOW the market in the form of either prior resistance-turned-support like the 216-to-9192-range and prior corrective lows like 2147 and 2079.  And unless the market proves weakness below these levels, there's no objective technical reason whatsoever to consider anything but a full bullish policy and exposure.

In sum, a bullish policy and exposure remain advised with weakness below at least 2147 required to threaten this call.  In lieu of such weakness further and possibly accelerated gains remain expected.  The market's upside potential is indeterminable and potentially extensive.

Emini 240

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