If focus shifts to new crop, more downside to come for soybeans

February 7, 2017 9:53AM CST

While a bit of a short term oversold condition, the market looks to trend lower into the spring, especially if the focus shifts to the new crops season.  South Korea bought 55,000 tonnes of meal overnight which is thought to be of South American origin.  March soybeans closed higher yesterday but still within Fridays range.  Talk of too much rain in the 6-10 day forecast for northern Brazil, with the EU model showing 5 plus inches of rains supported prices.  Also, ideas that China will be active buyers over the near-term with the Lunar New Year behind helped support.  The Brazilian line-up is solid and there is continued US export interest.  The combined length for the managed money trader in the soy complex went down 55,000 contracts from a near record high as of January 31st to a combined 286,000 contracts to net long.  The long liquidation selling trend is a short term bearish force.  While the USDA raised Brazil production to a record 104 million tonnes from 102 the previous month, there are plenty of traders who see 106 million or higher given early production average estimates for the report Thursday is at 158.5 million tonnes.  Resistance comes in at 1041 with support at 1009.

 

Soybeans Daily Chart

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