Bears Gain an Edge Moving into Fed Speech Windows

March 3, 2017 9:47AM CST

Global equity markets were all lower overnight with all markets down less than 1%. At the start of the day, it would appear as if the definitive risk on wave is waning. In fact, the inability of the bull camp to benefit form a very favorable and widely covered tech sector IPO event highlights a market that is unable to grasp potential windfalls. In looking ahead, the markets are facing an extended list of Fed speeches which are largely expected to provide additional hints of action from the Fed later this month. With the initial lower low track and the extending corrections from this weeks’ high some measure of a rate hike is factored into prices. However, given the compacted two day rally earlier in the week, the overbought condition into the March 1 high and what appears to be a lull in pro-growth policy attention in the headlines the bear camp clearly holds sway. Earnings announcements with include Big Lots before the Wall Street open.

From a technical standpoint, the March E-mini S&P from this week’s high to the overnight low is down 27 points and it would appear that the overnight fundamental news flow has left control in the hands of the bear camp. Near term downside targeting in the March E-mini S&P is seen down at the top of a late February consolidation zone of 2370.75. Uptrend channel support off the last three weeks action is seen at 2370.10 but pushed into the market today we have to favor the downward tilt. 

 

Emini Daily Chart

 

Like the rest of the stock market the mini Dow has remained under pressure to start the last trading session of the week. It does appear, however, as if the 21,000 level is offering up some measure of support but scheduled data and the Fed speech schedule today favors more downside action. The March E Mini NASDAQ is sitting roughly 55 points below this week’s high at the overnight low and we have to lean bearish toward the index, at least to start today. 

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