Sugar: Oversold and due for a bounce but the trend is down

March 22, 2017 3:21PM CDT

This week’s commentary finds a May sugar futures contract that remains under pressure.  Seven weeks of lower highs and lower lows has brought the May contract from 21.45 down to this week’s low of 17.02.  That is almost 5 full points off the price and a 55,000 contract decline in open interest.  Interestingly, non-commercial funds are still long over 100,000 sugar futures contracts. Stochastics point to a market that is well oversold and due for a bounce.  One wonders how much lower the market will have to trade to force the funds to capitulate and exit long positions.  Wire service reports point to ideas that the harvest in Brazil is going well. And, deservedly cane production is trumping Asian demand, for now.  Outside markets have not helped as the May crude contract and the May sugar contract have been traveling in tandem, virtually in one direction, lower.  I still suspect that the break is overdone.  However, no amount of suspicion is enough to counteract what you can see on the chart. The trend is down. 

 

May Sugar Daily Chart

 

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