Too Much Heat to Expect Normal Yield for Corn, Potential for More Upside

July 11, 2017 3:19PM CDT

The market reversed from 1- year highs overnight and already has taken out yesterday’s range.  The latest forecast remains threatening for the western corn-belt with triple digit heat in the Dakotas, Nebraska and Kansas and high 90’s in Minnesota and Iowa over the next 10 days.  The silking stage at 19% with Iowa only at 7%, North Dakota just 4%, South Dakota 2%, Nebraska 14% and Kansas 36%, the bulk of the western corn-belt has just started to pollinate.  On top of high temperatures, with many locations seeing 70 plus degree overnight low readings, precipitation will be limited for most of the western corn-belt through July 25th.  Weekly corn conditions were rated lower than last year by 3%.  With 2017-2018 ending stocks estimated at 2.170 billion bushels, the bear camp continues to point to supply.  A dent in yield could take ending stocks down a few hundred million but still leave a comfortable supply.  The real question one must ask, is there a story with pollination of the crop in the western belt?  Where there is a story there is trend-followers.  December close in support comes in at 405 and 402. 

Dec '17 Corn Daily Chart

Corn Dec'17 Daily Chart

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