Metals

What’s Gold’s Next move?

Posted 07/14/2017 9:45AM CTPhillip Streible

Gold futures will continue to keep a data driven mindset that will have a spillover effect on the probability of the speed of another rate hike. Anticipation remains high for 1 more rate hike this year but the possibility of the FED zeroing in on winding down its $4.5 trillion portfolio of mortgage and treasure securities may play more of a significant role in direction. This is in effect is reverse quantitative easing. We should get further insight over the next few weeks when more significant data comes out.   

Analysis and Outlook

The daily gold chart shows momentum indicator Stochastics in oversold territory and this is giving a cautionary bearish indication. ADX, which measures strength of the trend, has finally started to weaken indicating that the strength of the downward trend is starting to run out of steam. Gold needs to move back through $1240 and show some force back to the upside to get the bull party back started. Watch for a situation where gold consolidates at this level and becomes range bound until the next drop-off in the stock market or significantly weaker data out of this week’s economic reports. Pushes through the $1240 could indicate a move to $1300 which is the next level of psychological resistance. Caution should be taken if we see a close below 1200 where a washout could occur into uncharted territories. 

Gold chart 7/14/2017

Phillip Streible

Early in his career Phillip began trading his own account as a screen trader focusing on the metals, grains and stock indices. He then became a Series 7 licensed financial consultant with A.G. Edwards. Later, he expanded his trading experience into a Series 3 licensed commodity broker with Investment Analysis Group. Most recently he was a senior market strategist at MF Global before joining RJO Futures in October 2011 as a senior commodities broker. As a senior commodities broker his goal is to show clients how to anticipate, recognize and react to bull and bear market conditions through the use of technical analysis techniques that help them to define risk.