Corn yields show possibility of upward revision, weather could change that

October 31, 2017 8:45AM CDT

Many traders point to higher than expected yields reported from the field as a reason to suspect higher production estimates for the November crop update. However, recent winds and plenty of corn at risk to lower yield by drying down in the field may be an offset to higher yields. The weekly progress showed 54% harvested compared to 38% last week, but 73% last year.

China will end state corn auctions at the end of October with total sales for the year so far at 57.4 million tonnes. The Argentine corn crop could fall to 40 million tonnes from 41 million tonnes according to the USDA’s foreign Ag Service. They feel some producers could shift marginal corn acres to beans. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported Argentine corn plantings at 32.8% complete compared to 27.7% last week and 39% last year. Managed money traders are now net short 174,394 contracts after increasing their net short over the last three months to near record levels with the market not doing much. December corn is down 1.8% on the month so far. It seems like last year with producer waiting for a weather scare in South America to get the speculative fund to cover. It will take more than 9 cents to cover 174,394 contracts. Dec corn support is at 346 with 352 and 354 as resistance above.

 

Dec '17 Corn Daily Chart

Dec '17 Corn Daily Chart

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