Ukraine corn exports down 7% from last year

November 7, 2017 10:06AM CST

If we plug in the average trade yield estimate for Thursday’s USDA report into a supply/demand report at 172.4 bushels per acre, ending stocks increase to 2.421 billion bushels from 2.340 billion last month and 2.335 billion expected in September. If yield comes in at the low end estimate of 170, ending stocks slide down to 2.222 billion bushels and with high-end 174 yield, ending stocks increase to 2.554 billion bushels. Total production is estimated at 14.327 billion bushels compared to the previous USDA estimate of 14.280 billion. Ending stocks are pegged at 2.361 billion bushels vs. 2.340 billion last month.

Gasoline containing up to 10% ethanol has become France’s top selling petrol, its largest market in EU. Tax breaks have made the crop-based fuel more attractive to drivers. As of November 2, cumulative corn export inspections for the 2017-18 marketing year have reached 11.8% of the USDA forecast vs. 5-yr average of 15.2%.

The market remains in a tight range and will most likely stay that way until Thursday’s report. The index roll starts on Wednesday with spread volume likely to spike. Dec corn resistance is at 3514 with support at 3466.

 

Dec '17 Corn Daily Chart

Dec '17 Corn Daily Chart

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