Keep an Eye on the 10 Year Yield as Equities Rally Higher

January 9, 2018 10:03AM CST

The S&P March E-mini continues to make new all-time highs, briefly touching 2753.50 early this morning as the bulls maintain full control of the market.  This market never seems to go down and if my numbers are right, we have not had a 3% pullback in over a year and a half.  The one obstacle this market faces now that can halt this rally is the 10-year note, which just got above 2.50%.  This is a psychological level and a level many are talking about that can put a dent in the stock rally.  This level reached today has not been seen in a long time and certainly suggests that with rates screaming to the upside, should set off alarms for equity traders. Stocks historically do not like higher rates, but the one sector that performs well in this environment is the financial sector.  

Another obstacle that might put a halt in this rally is a report that came out this morning in the Russia probe is that author Michael Wolff of “Fire and Fury “ says in a report that if the Russia probe goes near Trump’s finances, Trump is sunk.  During this entire Russia investigation, President Trump has denied all allegations of any collusion and so far none has been proven but this one could hurt as its proven by Muller that POTUS has financial dealings with Russian officials prior to the election.  This could get very interesting and up to now he has weathered the storm against claims of collusion.  We will watch closely.  Looking at the technical side, the market continues to continue to march north without any setbacks.   The market is getting overbought but still no signs of a top.  Traders should continue to watch the 10-year yield as a continued march up could halt this stock rally in its tracks.

E-mini S&P 500 Mar '18 Daily Chart

e-mini_s&p_mar18_daily_chart

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