USDA Remains Bearish but Corn Fund Short Position is Nearing Record

January 16, 2018 10:51AM CST

Without much help from the weather, the bearish USDA update on Friday was enough to hold the market in a steady downtrend with 343 ¼ as next downside target for March corn.  Some traders remain concerned that Brazil’s second crop planted acreage will not reach expectations due to the forecast for continued heavy rainfall during Brazil’s first crop soybean harvest.  A Ukrain consulting firm lowered their production forecast and the Ukraine export outlook was revised down to 2.5% to 19 million tonnes.  March corn settled down 2.5 cents on the session Friday which left the market down 5 cents on the week.  The January USDA supply/demand and quarterly stocks report for the corn market was considered bearish with the final corn yield at a record high 176.6 bushels per acre versus the average estimate of 175.4.  Total productions came in at 14.604 billion bushels versus the average estimate of 14.580 billion bushels.  US ending stocks came in at 2.477 billion bushels versus the average estimate of 2.437 billion bushels.

The report news was bearish with US yield at a record high, which boosted production.  Managed money traders now hold a net short position of 222,516 contracts which is just shy of the record short of 230,556 contracts.  Finding new sellers may be difficult.  346 is support with 350 as resistance.

Corn Mar '18 Daily Chart

corn_mar18_daily_chart

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