Funds Short Corn are Caught with Improving Export Tone and Tighter Stocks

January 30, 2018 12:44PM CST

A significant tightening in the world stocks is a stronger possibility if Brazil cannot get the second crop in the ground.  US exporters announced a sale of 115,000 tonnes of corn to Egypt.  Corn exports over the last few weeks have been solid, helped by a weak US dollar and dry weather in rival exporting nations of Argentina and South Africa.  In the past two weeks, exporters have sold 3.3 million tonnes of US corn which is the best two week period in over two months.  This week’s weekly export inspections for corn came in at 993,506 tonnes, which is a marketing year high and above analyst’s estimates.

If the current conditions persists in Argentina over the next two weeks, the corn production could fall to as low as 36 million tonnes.  If the flooding materializes in Brazil, their corn productions could fall by about 9 million tonnes from the current estimate of 95 million.  The USDA currently sees a global production deficit at 22.2 million tonnes, but if South America weather issues persist, this could easily become a 37.2 million tonne drawdown, which would be the largest since 1988.  Support is seen at 357 and 356 with resistance at 364.

Corn Mar '18 Daily Chart

corn_mar18_daily_chart

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