Wheat May See Oversold Bounce, But Will Need Weather for More Upside

March 26, 2018 8:59AM CDT

While there is plenty of rain in the US forecast this week, the southern and western plains may see only light amounts.  Iraq has bought 100,000 tonnes of wheat, with about half of that thought to be wheat from the US.  The wheat market may have put in a short-term low, but the upside is still limited unless we see some significant weather events for major exporters.  Last week’s drought monitor showed improvements in the spring wheat areas but unchanged conditions in the winter wheat areas.  The spring wheat still has 31% considered to be in drought areas, compared to 39% last week.  The international grains council estimated that world wheat output would be down 2.2% at 741 million tonnes compared to 758 million tonnes last year.  They also see wheat world stockpiles at 253 million tonnes, down 1.2% from last year. Chicago wheat support comes in at 468-470 with 488-495 as stiff resistance.

Wheat Jul ’18 Daily Chart

wheat_jul18_daily_chart

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