China Corn Production is 15 MMT under USDA Estimate; Should Tighten Stocks

May 15, 2018 10:08AM CDT

After over an 11-cent break from last week’s high, the corn market looks poised for a resumption of the uptrend with 428 as the next short-term target for Dec corn.  Support yesterday was seen from the weekly export inspections that came in at 1,554,495 tonnes compared to estimates of 1.4-1.8 million tonnes.  As of May 10, cumulative corn export inspections have reached 61% of the USDA forecast Vs. a 5-yr average of 62%.  The northeast province of Jilin is buying corn from the 2017 harvest to replace old stockpiles under the annual government rotation program.

The weekly progress report showed 62% of the crop is planted compared to 39% last week and 68% last year.  The average estimate from traders was around 59%.  The 10-yr average is 65% for this time of year.

December corn held the 50% retracement level of 412 and from the April 23 low to last week’s high.  The planting progress over the last week or so does not offer much for the bull camp, but last week’s report certainly confirmed a trendline yield or higher is needed just to keep ending stock from falling.  Support comes in at 414 for Dec with 428 and 448 as upside resistance.

Corn Dec '18 Daily Chart

Corn Dec '18 Daily Chart

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