Trade War Fears Persist; S&P Needs Less Fear or More Down to Come

June 28, 2018 11:32AM CDT

The Shanghai Composite and South Korean KOSPI indices led the Asian stock markets which were mostly lower.  The Chinese Yuan recorded a 7-month low Vs. the dollar and retail sales numbers in Japan were lower than anticipated. The North American session will start with a weekly reading for initial jobless claims that are expected to see a minimal weekly uptick from the prior 1.723 million reading.  The last reading of the first quarter GDP is forecasted to hold steady with a previous 2.2 annualized rate.

There is hope that the administration is making progress on the China trade issue, but the market does not like the uncertainty and disagreements within Trump’s camp on the issue and this uncertainty is a crucial bearish influence in the short term for the S&P.  In addition, emerging market concerns continue as higher energy and consumer good prices due to increased global tariffs are factors which are helping send investors to the sidelines.  Resistance is around 2729 and 2762 with support coming in at 2682.

E-mini S&P 500 Sep '18 Daily Chart

E-mini S&P 500 Sep '18 Daily Chart

RJO Futures | 222 South Riverside Plaza, Suite 1200 | Chicago, Illinois 60606 | United States
800.441.1616 | 312.373.5478

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that RJO Futures believes to be reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgement at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of RJO Futures and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by RJO Futures Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction with registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.