Looking at the September 10-year note, we hit a contract high early this morning at 135-14 and touched a yearly low in yield at 1.127. We are currently trading at 124-25 and yield is 1.195. The reason for this morning’s rally was the weaker than expected ADP payroll number and worries that Friday’s employment number may also come in weaker than what the street is forecasting. Things have since reversed due to the very hawkish speech that Fed Vice-Chair Clarida gave late this morning. He believes the Fed should begin to taper as early as July, meaning the Fed should stop buying bonds and keeping interest rates artificially low. The Fed has hinted that they will give the market a heads up when that thought process is to occur so we will have to see when that does happen. My best hypothesis is that if we see a big employment number on Friday morning, upwards of a million new jobs, the treasury market will dictate exactly when the Fed will make the taper announcement. Looking at technicals for the Sep note, we see resistance at today’s high of 135-14 and support around 134-04. I will say, if the note does close lower in the day after making a new high, that indicates an island reversal and we may not see another high for quite some time. 

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Greg Perlin

Senior Market Strategist
Greg is a former Chicago Board of Trade member. He was an independent floor trader, pit broker and floor broker with Cantor Fitzgerald. Some of his clients included traders from Morgan Stanley and Lehman Brothers. He also acted in the capacity of desk manager for the morning trade desk. Greg was part of the elite Lind Plus Division for 10 years before joining RJO Futures in 2011.
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