10-Yr T-Notes Reaffirm Secular Bear TrendPosted 05/15/2018 11:59AM CT |
Today’s clear and impulsive break below 25-Apr’s 118.31 low confirms our suspicion that late-Apr/early-May’s recovery attempt is a 3-wave and thus corrective affair within our long-term bearish count reintroduced in 13-Apr’s Technical Blog. As a direct result of this resumed weakness, the 240-min chart below shows that the market has identified Fri’s 119.17 high as the latest smaller-degree corrective high and new short-term risk parameter it is now minimally required to recover above to threaten a more immediate bearish count. Per such 119.17 is considered our new short-term risk parameter from which a bearish policy and exposure can be objectively rebased and managed.
Today’s prices mark new lows for the entire bear market from Jul 2012’s 135.16 all time high. As a result, ALL technical levels of any merit exist ONLY ABOVE the market in the forms of former support-turned-resistance like the 119.00-area and prior corrective highs like 119.17 and 04-May’s next larger-degree corrective high and key long-term risk parameter at 120.00. In effect, the trend is down on all scales with no support below the market. Further and possibly accelerated losses are expected in the resumption of what we believe is a secular bear market that could span a generation.
These issues considered, a full and aggressive bearish policy and exposure remain advised with strength above 119.17 and/or 120.00 required to pare or neutralize this exposure commensurate with one’s personal risk profile.