Energy

June Natural Gas in an Uptrend – for Now

Posted 04/26/2018 9:15AM CTJeff Ratajczak

The trend in the June natural gas June is up.  Bullish forces will be in control with a close over yesterday’s 2.825 high, signaling a continuation of the trend upward to challenge the March 13 high of 2.873.  Resistance is seen at yesterday’s high and above that near the 2.850.  Support today is at 2.780, further out support is seen just under 2.750.  A close below, will send the market back into the 2.700-2.650 range.  Momentum studies are at mid-levels and starting to turn south.  This may increase a move down if support is broken.  If neither price is penetrated some consolidation may occur, but the trend will still be intact.

Today’s estimated EIA storage number is a -11bcf draw.  The five-year average for this week is a 60bcf build, this disparity favors the bull camp.  The weather is starting to turn more spring like and heating demand is waning with the seasonal change.  Warmer temperatures should bring 80’s to the Midwest, but along with the warmth comes the risk of severe weather. Demand for electricity for cooling has yet to be a major force in gas prices.  Continued exposure to the long side of the market should be considered.

Natural Gas Jun ’18 Daily Chart

Natural Gas Jun '18 Daily Chart

Jeff Ratajczak

Jeff attended Illinois State University. In 1993 Jeff began his financial career in the stock market as a retail broker. He transitioned to futures in 1999 with LFG Intermarket Group, which became ZAP Futures. In 2004 ZAP Futures was acquired by RJO Futures' parent company R.J. O'Brien. Jeff's focus is to assist clients in managing risk and speculate through futures and options strategies.