As we near the end of 2020, analysts start to dissect and predict certain possibilities in the new year. Will cocoa demand be up? What will production data be? Will a Covid vaccine speed up the “back to normal process?”

Many of cocoa’s 2020 stories have been on repeat. 2021 can see cocoa prices test highs. Cocoa prices are very much demand driven. In a down year for many commodities, cocoa was able to find a few big rallies higher when the fundamentals where working with the technicals. If chocolate companies start the new year with better than expected earnings, we can see cocoa trade back towards 2800, we were just there in the March contract. If Q1 can give us direction on the production numbers, 3000 is completely possible by mid-year.

The unknowns, outside of the virus discussion, that could help a cocoa price rally are a few key indicators for the soft– what happens with the Brexit? What levels will the Euro and Pound trade? Will unrest in Ivory Coast, West Africa affect output?

With all those factors waiting to be discovered, cocoa is a market that will volatile in the coming year.

Cocoa Mar ’21 Daily Chart

Peter Mooses

Follow Peter on Twitter @PMoosesRJO. Peter's interest in trading began during a college internship with Bunge North America on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade, where he assisted commodities traders and performed market research and analysis. Upon earning a B.A. in economics from the University of Iowa, Peter served as an analyst, transaction manager and team lead in the Global Trust Divisions for LaSalle Bank and Bank of America, where he managed transaction activity in multi-million dollar client fixed income and asset-backed securities portfolios. After years in the banking industry, it became apparent that Peter's real passion lies in futures trading. He joined RJO Futures because he enjoys the analytical aspects of futures trading and appreciates the economic impact that commodities have across all markets. Peter believes in utilizing market analysis and trends to help clients achieve balance between risk and return, while always keeping their investment objectives top of mind.