Looking at the June 10-year note, we have a range today of 139.05-138.25 and currently sit at 13829. Economic news today is light as treasuries are taking their cue from stocks which are currently very strong today, but off their highs. Later this afternoon we have the FOMC minutes, which are minutes of the last policy statement.  Traders should be on guard for any verbiage or mention of negative rates as that will sure be a market mover. 

Looking at technicals in the June 10-year note, the market is behaving rather nicely as the short-term trend points to higher levels, but traders should key off the 40-day moving average which currently sits at 138.245 which coincidently is right near the low of today. If we can stay above that number on a closing basis, look for the market to grind a bit higher. If that level gives way, we could see a push down to 138-16. I want traders and investors alike to be cognizant of all the money the Fed has been printing since the pandemic has started.  The amount has been off the charts and the effect will cause a spike in inflation. This is the last thing the fed wants as 30+ million Americans are out of work, but the Fed would rather see consumers start to spend and get the economy up and running then worry about inflation. But don’t look now, we could see a real spike in the near term so be on guard.

10-yr Note Jul ’20 Daily Chart
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Greg Perlin

Senior Market Strategist
Greg is a former Chicago Board of Trade member. He was an independent floor trader, pit broker and floor broker with Cantor Fitzgerald. Some of his clients included traders from Morgan Stanley and Lehman Brothers. He also acted in the capacity of desk manager for the morning trade desk. Greg was part of the elite Lind Plus Division for 10 years before joining RJO Futures in 2011.
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