Just about a year ago the world braced itself for some unknown virus that was slowly disrupting the world as we knew it. People who were feeling ill were being isolated and tested, businesses and offices began to send employees home until the situation would be “under control” and the National Basketball Association suspended play as it’s first player tested positive during live play. WHO declared Covid a pandemic – the world knew at that point we may be dealing with something we hadn’t seen in our lifetime.

Now, the world is hopefully headed in a positive direction. Vaccines appear to be rolling out at a successful pace in some areas – infection rates, hospitalizations and death rates seem to be getting better during this process. As more of the population accepts the vaccines we will know more about the economic recovery as well. Will the public follow procedures long enough to allow the progress made with vaccinations to work? Will certain states reopening early hurt the entire US economy and recovery? Will spring break travel stall the positive data we are receiving thus far as these potential super spreader events take place? All these unknowns will be answered over the next few months.

As for cocoa, a global economic recovery and reopening of businesses and events can only help the market. A soft commodity like cocoa is heavily reliant on demand. Demand has slowed as people have changed their routines and purchasing habits. Some of the fundamentals for cocoa have stayed steady, production concerns could help or stabilize prices and with a little help from the demand side of the equation May cocoa prices should head back above 2650.

Cocoa May ’21 Daily Chart

Peter Mooses

Follow Peter on Twitter @PMoosesRJO. Peter's interest in trading began during a college internship with Bunge North America on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade, where he assisted commodities traders and performed market research and analysis. Upon earning a B.A. in economics from the University of Iowa, Peter served as an analyst, transaction manager and team lead in the Global Trust Divisions for LaSalle Bank and Bank of America, where he managed transaction activity in multi-million dollar client fixed income and asset-backed securities portfolios. After years in the banking industry, it became apparent that Peter's real passion lies in futures trading. He joined RJO Futures because he enjoys the analytical aspects of futures trading and appreciates the economic impact that commodities have across all markets. Peter believes in utilizing market analysis and trends to help clients achieve balance between risk and return, while always keeping their investment objectives top of mind.