Dec ’19 coffee futures have been consolidating in a nearly identical range and holding the same support level as it had in May before spiking upwards. There appears to be strong support and possibly a firm bottom at 94’70 and a near term resistance at 97’50 as prices on the daily chart have failed to close above that level since dropping below it on Aug 16th. The fundamentals have been supportive with an anticipated production deficit with increased demand for this season. However, ample supplies from last season’s massive production surplus and weakness in producer currencies such as the Brazilian real have prevented prices from taking off thus far. As this seasons harvest wraps up the story will start to change from past to present and I believe with prices this cheap and what appears to be a bottom in place, purchasers of the physical goods will be inspired to buy, calendar spreads could be a strong indicator of this, if they start becoming less negative I’d consider it a bullish signal. Any positive news will could be enough to spark a rally in this market. With the cold months approaching, the coffee market could become warm and inviting for bulls.
