RJO FuturesCast

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Metals

August Gold to Retest $1,200

Posted 07/07/2017 9:10AM CT | Joshua Graves

August gold has been in a slow grind lower ever since the June 6 high of 1298.80. It’s no secret that the stock market has been pushing higher since the Trump election. The economic data has been neutral to positive at best, and in reality it’s been quite mixed until this morning’s non-farm payroll data. We saw the jobs data come out at a very positive 222,000 jobs added with a general consensus of 170,000 jobs added. To note, the manufacturing jobs added came in well below the month to month change of just 1,000 jobs compared with the consensus of 6,000. 222,000 jobs added also came above the consensus range with a high estimate of 200,000. As we take a look at gold’s initial reaction we are seeing gold touch the lowest levels since March. The big question that we have to answer is what is going to stop the gold free fall? Right now the looming crisis in North Korea could be the one thing to turn gold around. It’s a long shot, but obviously any sort of military strike on the country even surgically could have dramatic implications for gold, and the world economy. Any weakening of US economic data, as well as a more dovish tone from the fed could also get the gold bulls excited again.

If we take a look at August gold from a technical perspective, it appears that support has been broken and a test of the technically and psychologically important 1200 level is now in order. We are also testing the 50% retracement level of 1216, and not holding it well. If we break this we are most likely heading to 1200, where the 62% retracement level also coincides. 

 

Aug ’17 Gold Daily Chart

Aug '17 Gold Daily Chart

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Joshua Graves

Senior Market Strategist
Josh began his career in May of 2013 after graduating from Purdue University, West Lafayette. He received a degree in Agricultural Economics, with a Certificate in Entrepreneurship. He started at Paragon Investments in Kansas, the heart of wheat country. While working there he developed long term relationships with corn, soybean, and wheat producers, speaking with them on a weekly basis. His goal was to market their physical production more effectively through tracking basis, as well as hedge their exposure in the grain and cattle markets through a variety of futures and option strategies. He then moved to Florida to work for PFL Petroleum, a physical biofuels brokerage, and gained significant exposure to OTC and physical energy markets. Trading has been a passion from day one of his career. In his free time he stays active in downtown Chicago, attends sporting events, and holds an FAA Private Pilot’s License and flies Cirrus and Cessna aircraft regularly.
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