Anticipation of a large crop is back into the picture for cocoa futures’ prices. Cocoa has given back 10% of its value in August thus far. Will these lower prices entice buyers again? Will demand for cocoa in Europe and North America rise? – Those questions have been looming all year but haven’t moved the market. Weather conditions in key growing regions have been good for crop development at this time of the season. Port arrivals in Ivory Coast are close to 1.925 million tonnes compared to last year’s 1.44 tonnes. The recent strength in the Dollar has weighed on most commodities – creating small selloffs. The Euro and Pound have added pressure to cocoa futures too. Look to see if the rally back in the Dollar carries over to the overall commodity market. Will global fears also pressure commodities and equities? There are a lot of unknowns and guessing taking place currently. Look for technical levels to lead the market at times like this. December cocoa is hitting support levels, a reversal may be forming.
Dec ’17 Cocoa Daily Chart