Cocoa futures continue to be demand driven. This time of year, typically we see a boost in chocolate sales for the Valentine’s Day holiday, this year is a little different. With less people going out due to restrictions and restaurants and stores reopening slowly, chocolate sales are down. The May chart continues to trade in consolidation due to these factors.
Thursday, we saw a 9 % drop down at one point. I do believe a lot of it has to do with traders preparing for the roll. Cocoa is one of the commodities to watch this year since it has been heavily affected by the lockdowns. Loosening restrictions and more activities opening can only help prices move higher. If the trend continues, traders will continue to want to be long, so shorts probably will look to exit positions as the year progresses. We saw a dramatic sell-off due to repositioning from the March contract to further out months. Looking at options pricing it appears traders are looking to remain long cocoa contracts.
With weather patterns also creating a bullish sentiment, cocoa prices should head back above 2500 in the near-term.