RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

The extent and impulsiveness of yesterday’s continued rally above Mon’s 0.8076 high reinforces our bullish count and identifies smaller- and larger-degree corrective lows at 0.8053 and 0.7903, respectively, that now serve as our new short- and longer-term risk parameters from which a still-advised bullish policy and exposure can be objectively rebased and managed.  Now-former 0.8088-to-0.88076-area resistance would be expected to hold as new near-term support ahead of further and possibly historic gains in the weeks and months ahead.

We reference the possibility of historic gains as the weekly (above) and monthly (below) charts show NO levels of any technical merit between spot and Sep’17’s 0.8291 high that has capped a massive FIVE YEAR lateral range, the break of which exposes a reversal of the secular bear trend from 2011’s 1.0618 high.  If the market is on such a major bullish tangent however, it will be crucial for it to sustain trendy, impulsive behavior higher in the face of historically frothy levels in the Bullish Consensus (marketvane.net) and arguably waning upside momentum on a weekly basis above.  A failure below 0.8053 would be the first threat against such a bull while commensurately larger-degree weakness below 0.7903 would expose another multi-quarter reversion to the bowels of the five year range.

These issues considered, a bullish policy and exposure remain advised with a failure below 0.8053 required for shorter-term traders to move to the sidelines and for even longer-term institutional players to pare exposure to more conservative levels.  In lieu of such weakness, further and possibly accelerated gains straight away are expected, including a run at and possibly through Sep’17’s 0.8291 high.

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