RJO FuturesCast

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While the hourly chart of ICE day-session prices above does not yet reflect overnight’s recovery above 14-Jan’s 692.1 high and short-term risk parameter resulting from 19-Jan’s bearish divergence in short-term momentum, the daily chart below does.  This resurrected strength leaves 20-Jan’s 645.1 low in its wake as the end of another correction within the secular bull trend and now the key risk parameter the market is required to fail below to confirm a bearish divergence in DAILY momentum that would pose another threat to the major bull trend.  Per such, we’re defining 645.00 as our new long-term risk parameter from which longer-term commercial players can objectively rebase and manage the risk of a still-advised bullish policy.  Shorter-term traders with tighter risk profiles whipsawed out of bullish exposure on 19-Jan’s short-term mo failure are advised to wait for a smaller-degree corrective dip and resumed rally for the market to identify a tighter yet objective risk parameter from which to reconsider a bullish play.

On a broader scale, the weekly (above) and monthly (below) log scale charts show the clear and present and major bull trend once again intact with no levels of any technical merit above the market shy of Mar 2008’s 769.9 all-time high.  While the upper-quarters of ranges are certainly areas t be increasingly watchful for momentum failures that could expose larger-degree corrections or reversals lower, it is precisely one of these CONFIRMED momentum failures that is required to even defer, let alone threaten the bull.  And in this case, quite simply, this requires proof of weakness below 645.00.

In sum, the secular bull trend has resumed, warranting a continued bullish policy and exposure by long-term players with a failure below 645.00 required to threaten this call enough to warrant moving to the sidelines and circumventing the depths unknown of a larger-degree correction or major reversal lower.  Shorter-term traders whipsawed out of bullish exposure on 19-Jan’s bearish divergence in short-term mo are advised to wait for a smaller-degree corrective setback for the market to define a tighter but objective corrective low and risk parameter from which to rebase and manage the risk of a resumed bullish policy as risking longs to 645.00 is arguably beyond the risk profiles of shorter-term traders.  In lieu of sub-645 weakness, further and possibly accelerated gains should not surprise straight away.

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