RJO FuturesCast

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Per last Wed’s Technical Blog, today’s price explosion that has blown away the past two months’ 129.50-to-130.50-range highs and resistance and has obviously reinstated and reaffirmed the secular bull trend ahead of indeterminable gains.  This bust-out has left that key former resistance between 130.50 and 129.50 as a new key support area this market should not come anywhere near to relapsing below per any broader bullish count.  Per such and per the 240-min chart above and daily close-only chart below, we’re defining the 129.00 level as our new short-term bull risk parameter and 19-Aug’s 127.80 intra-day low and/or its 128.10 close as our new long-term bull risk parameter.  While the market’s upside potential is indeterminable and potentially extreme, we know it should NOT fail below levels like 129.00 and certainly not close below 128.10 per any broader bullish count.

The weekly chart of the Oct contract above shows the clear resumption of the secular bull trend to new contracts highs.  On a monthly log active-continuation basis, the only level standing in the way of the highest prices since Mar’16 is May’17’s 134.55 high.  Beyond 134.55 are NO levels of any technical pertinence shy of Nov’14’s 172.75 high.  Now we’re not forecasting a move to 172.  But until and unless this market arrests this clear and present and major uptrend with a failure below at least 129 and preferably 128, traders should act on the premise that its upside potential is indeterminable and potentially severe, including a run at all-time highs from seven years ago.

These issues considered, a bullish policy and exposure remain advised with a failure below at least 129.00 for shorter-term traders to step aside and commensurately larger-degree weakness below 128.10 for longer-term commercial players to follow suit.  In lieu of such weakness, further and possibly accelerated gains straight away are anticipated.

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