There are four areas to monitor in cocoa over the next few weeks.
First, supply. Will we get numbers in line with estimates that have helped prices move lower? At this point, it is anyone’s guess after the latest news that West Africa could have some bean issues. The affect El Nino had on the crop is not completely known yet. If beans come in small or damaged, this will hurt export data. Ghana also needs to borrow around $400 million to get through the season, which could turn the supply side of the equation bullish if any issues surface.
Second, demand. With the recent move in the Euro currency, is Europe’s demand for cocoa making a comeback? Traders have been waiting for this answer but there hasn’t been any real carryover to prices.
Third, the French Election. This will affect the currencies and the overall market tone. We will know more after May 7…
Lastly, the technicals. The July contract is showing support around 1835, resistance at 1900. The contract couldn’t break and hold below 1800. The long liquidating may be coming to an end. Now what?
Jul ’17 Cocoa Daily Chart