Cocoa futures have fallen from the highs we saw mid-month. Currencies have played a major roll in the weakness in cocoa futures. The Euro specifically has continued to move lower which has carried over to the soft, causing concerns that the European demand will continue to be low for cocoa.
On the macro-side, it appears the demand for cocoa is starting to increase. There are also supply concerns that should provide support and could start a quick recovery in futures prices. Weather in West Africa is also very dry and hot which will potentially hurt this year’s crop – causing traders to think that we move back to 2600.
For now, traders should continue to monitor weather patterns in West Africa. This paired with volatility in the global markets, mixed with demand concerns should create an interesting quarter of trading.