July ’19 cocoa futures break sharply lower with volatile US/China trade talks and the potential for trade conflicts between the US and EU. US/China talks have been a significant factor in many markets lately and have been wreaking havoc on charts and taking trader’s psychology on a roller coaster ride. If the US/EU enter conflict on trade this could decimate any cocoa confidence as Euro zone grinders make up more than 1/3 of all global cocoa processing. Possible issues with supply and potential marketing cooperation from the world’s two largest producing regions (Ivory coast and Ghana) have been supporting factors but depleting confidence and increasing demand concerns may prove too strong. At the time of writing that the price of cocoa has briefly pierced down past consolidation lows but is recovering. Volatility is expected but technical factors indicate we could be close to a breakout and it’s time to start paying close attention.
Cocoa Jul ’19 Daily Chart