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Cocoa Support Provided by Ongoing Supply Concerns

Posted 07/05/2018 2:43PM CT | Peter Mooses

With a shortened week due to the US holiday, cocoa has been unable to decide its next move. Supply is still the front story, providing most of the support. Will weather be a factor, El Nino? Will disease hit pods due to weather related problems? Will political uncertainty in Ivory Coast add to output concerns? All of these questions could boost prices higher.

Demand has been and will continue to be the biggest question. Looking at the euro and pound has given us little guidance. The equity market has been volatile and has led to more global uncertainty. The July 9 COT report will give us a view of what traders are thinking as they continue to position themselves.

Cocoa Sep ’18 Daily Chart

Cocoa Sep '18 Daily Chart

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Peter Mooses

Senior Market Strategist
Follow Peter on Twitter @PMoosesRJO. Peter's interest in trading began during a college internship with Bunge North America on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade, where he assisted commodities traders and performed market research and analysis. Upon earning a B.A. in economics from the University of Iowa, Peter served as an analyst, transaction manager and team lead in the Global Trust Divisions for LaSalle Bank and Bank of America, where he managed transaction activity in multi-million dollar client fixed income and asset-backed securities portfolios. After years in the banking industry, it became apparent that Peter's real passion lies in futures trading. He joined RJO Futures because he enjoys the analytical aspects of futures trading and appreciates the economic impact that commodities have across all markets. Peter believes in utilizing market analysis and trends to help clients achieve balance between risk and return, while always keeping their investment objectives top of mind.
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