As several States begin to shut down after just re-opening due to the spread of COVID 19, we can expect yet another challenge on the demand side for September coffee. This new shutdown will be weighed against recent reports that temperatures in key growing areas of Brazil are colder than normal, thus possibly delaying and affecting the upcoming crop while frost damage becomes a real possibility. September coffee futures recently broke out of consolidation due to the reported temperatures in Brazil, and coffee prices have been able to hold support at the 95 level.
From a technical perspective, a likely return to the 50-day moving average at the 104 level is likely to take place in the near term. However, ultimately may see stiff resistance at the 50-day moving average as the await the effects of the recent increase in new cases, which will likely delay a reversal to the upside for September coffee prices.