Some continued wet weather is key growing areas of Brazil has helped to keep March coffee futures prices in check, as earlier dry weather had been forecasted to be a large bullish factor. However, lock downs on restaurants and coffee houses will continue to prompt sluggish demand on coffee, but the promise of a future-tight crop should continue to provide March coffee prices with some support.

The UK has announced that they will begin distributing the Pfizer vaccine, which should be viewed as a bullish factor on the demand side for coffee. Although several factors will continue to play a role in how effective the vaccine and distribution of the vaccine will be, on-the-whole, the news is positive for the future of coffee shops and restaurants.

From a technical perspective, the aggressive bullish crossover of the price action through the 200-day MA has been followed by consolidation and strong support. The March coffee price action has also managed to back and fill the gap from 11/27/20 at 119, and has subsequently held support above the 200-day MA. There are several strategies that traders can apply in this situation.  

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Coffee Mar ’21 Daily Chart

Adam Tuiaana

Adam grew up in Chicago and was always fascinated by the fast-paced action found in the futures market hub there. He began participating in the financial markets by trading stocks in 1997 and began his career as a trading consultant with RJO Futures in March of 2009. At RJO, he specializes in risk management and disciplined trading plans, and is focused on educating clients with one-on-one consulting and training. Adam believes the best approach to trading is to take a measured and objective approach and let the markets guide your decisions.