by Greg Perlin, Senior Market Strategist – RJO Futures
For years, investors and traders have looked at bonds as a key indicator to watch where equities will go. The yield on the 10-year note has risen rapidly in the last few months and got to a high of 3.20 yesterday. That has been the main driver for the sharp move lower in stocks. Today the 10-year yield is currently trading at 2.95% and we are showing some signs of stability in the stock market. Might the market be sensing that the fed tightening cycle has been fully priced in? Could be. One indicator to watch is the price of used vehicles that have come down substantially in the last few months. Tomorrow, we get the CPI number at 7:30 AM, and if we see a hint of softening, expect rates to decline and a bid in the stock indices.