RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

Metals

Copper Faltering “Up Here”

Posted 02/12/2019 8:29AM CT | RJO Market Insights

While the market has yet to fail below 04-Feb’s 2.7505 smaller-degree corrective low and our short-term risk parameter discussed in 06-Feb’s Technical Blog, cautious bulls are nonetheless advised to pare or neutralize bullish exposure given:

  • the market’s failure to sustain gains above 31-Jan’s 2.7970 resistance-turned-support
  • 07-Feb’s 2.8505 high’s proximity to the EXTREME upper recesses of the lateral 6-month range and
  • Fibonacci fact that the rally from 14-Jan’s 2.6165 (suspected 2nd- or b-Wave) low spanned a length exactly 61.8% longer (i.e. 1.618 progression) than Jan’s initial 2.5430 – 2.6865 (1st- or a-Wave) rally.

As a result of the past few days’ relapse, 07-Feb’s 2.8505 high is considered a micro but key risk parameter from which non-bullish decisions like long-covers and cautious bearish punts can be objectively based and managed.

Copper 240min Chart

Copper Daily Chart

The market’s proximity to the extreme upper recesses of the 6-month range amidst waning upside momentum are clear in the daily log chart above and weekly log chart below.  The risk/reward merits of maintaining even a cautious bullish policy up here at this slippery slope are just poor, so traders are advised to move to a neutral stance at-the-market and then first approach recovery attempts to the 2.8100-area OB as cautious corrective selling opportunities with a recovery above 2.8505 required to negate that call.  A larger-degree relapse within the 6-month range is suspected, and quite possibly a resumption of Dec’17 – Aug’18’s major downtrend.

Copper Weekly Chart

RJO Market Insights

RJO Market Insights specializes in forward-thinking analysis, focused on potential market-moving events and dominant factors driving price discovery. Detailed fundamental and technical coverage across multiple commodity sectors is combined with objectively-constructed trade recommendations to provide an industry-leading product for R.J. O’Brien’s Institutional clients, commercial hedgers, introducing brokers and individual investors free of charge. Content is distributed in both text and audio formats, with specialized service offerings provided by account type.
For more information on RJO Market Insights, contact your broker or RJO representative.
Read More