While the market has yet to fail below 04-Feb’s 2.7505 smaller-degree corrective low and our short-term risk parameter discussed in 06-Feb’s Technical Blog, cautious bulls are nonetheless advised to pare or neutralize bullish exposure given:
- the market’s failure to sustain gains above 31-Jan’s 2.7970 resistance-turned-support
- 07-Feb’s 2.8505 high’s proximity to the EXTREME upper recesses of the lateral 6-month range and
- Fibonacci fact that the rally from 14-Jan’s 2.6165 (suspected 2nd- or b-Wave) low spanned a length exactly 61.8% longer (i.e. 1.618 progression) than Jan’s initial 2.5430 – 2.6865 (1st- or a-Wave) rally.
As a result of the past few days’ relapse, 07-Feb’s 2.8505 high is considered a micro but key risk parameter from which non-bullish decisions like long-covers and cautious bearish punts can be objectively based and managed.
The market’s proximity to the extreme upper recesses of the 6-month range amidst waning upside momentum are clear in the daily log chart above and weekly log chart below. The risk/reward merits of maintaining even a cautious bullish policy up here at this slippery slope are just poor, so traders are advised to move to a neutral stance at-the-market and then first approach recovery attempts to the 2.8100-area OB as cautious corrective selling opportunities with a recovery above 2.8505 required to negate that call. A larger-degree relapse within the 6-month range is suspected, and quite possibly a resumption of Dec’17 – Aug’18’s major downtrend.
