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We discussed some weakness and vulnerability in 20-Sep’s Technical Blog that threatened some constructive behavior from mid-Aug-to-early-Sep. The extent and impulsiveness of today’s breakdown on the heels of yesterday’s bearish divergence in very short-term momentum below 23-Sep’s 4.1945 corrective low detailed in the 240-min chart below not only reinforces a bearish count stemming from the weakness discussed in our last update, but threatens the resumption of a peak/reversal process from 10-May’s 4.8880 high that could be major in scope. Per such and as shown below, the market has identified Mon’s 4.3175 high and 13-Sep’s 4.4715 high as the latest smaller- and larger-degree corrective high that now serve as our new short- and long-term risk parameters from which a bearish policy and exposure can be objectively based and managed. In lieu of a recovery above these levels, further and possibly protracted losses straight away are anticipated.
![](https://rjofutures.rjobrien.com/images/2021/09/copper-240min-chart-1.gif)
![](https://rjofutures.rjobrien.com/images/2021/09/copper-daily-chart-1.gif)
On a broader scale and following May-Jun’s initial counter-trend decline that threatens the secular bull trend, the past three months’ mere lateral chop looks to be about as corrective and consolidative as it gets, warning of a resumption of May-Jun’s initial decline. Today’s break below 20-Sep’s 4.1145 clos confirms at least the intermediate-term trend as down and leaves only 19-Aug’s 4.0410 low close standing between the market and NO levels of any technical merit below that point with the exception of that day’s 3.9615 intra-day low.
Indeed, the weekly log chart below shows NO levels of any technical merit below 19-Aug’s 3.9615 low, the break of which exposes an abyss where a major peak/reversal count will be reaffirmed. And given the magnitude of Mar’20 – May’21’s secular bull trend, the extent of the market’s vulnerability below 3.9615 could be equally massive.
![](https://rjofutures.rjobrien.com/images/2021/09/copper-weekly-chart-1.gif)
Finally, the monthly log chart below shows the market’s May’21 break above Feb 2011’s previous all-time high of 4.6495 and its failure thus far to sustain those gains. All these factors considered, it’s not hard to see the developing prospect for a peak/reversal threat that could be major in scope. Per such, traders are advised to move to a new bearish policy and first approach recovery attempts to the 4.1350-area OB as corrective selling opportunities with a recovery above 4.3175 required to negate this specific call and warrant its cover. In lieu of at least such 4.3175+ strength, further and possibly accelerated, even relentless losses in the weeks and months ahead should not surprise.
![](https://rjofutures.rjobrien.com/images/2021/09/copper-monthly-chart-1.gif)