RJO FuturesCast

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The extent and impulsiveness of today’s blast above the past couple weeks’ resistance around the 4.5935-area confirms at least the intermediate-term trend as up and leaves smaller- and larger-degree corrective lows in its wake at 4.5460 and 4.4470 that it is now required to fail below to threaten and then negate a bullish count that could include a resumption of the secular bull trend to new all-time highs.  Per such, these intra-day levels are considered our new short- and longer-term risk parameters from which a cautious bullish policy and exposure can be objectively based and managed.  Since 10-Feb’s 4.7085 intra-day high remains intact as a resistance candidate, care must be taken with bullish exposure “up here”.  But as we’ll show below on a daily close-only basis, today’s rally has blown away 09-Feb’s 4.6350 high.


The daily close-only chart above shows today’s blow-out above 09-Feb’s 4.6350 high that reaffirms and reinstates a bull trend that dates from at least 17-Nov’s 4.2025 low, leaving only 20Oct21’s 4.7320 high and May’21’s 4.8880 intra-day high above it as resistance candidates.  Both the daily chart above and weekly log chart below shows the market’s encroachment on the upper recesses of a range that spans the past 10 months and that has thus far repelled previous assaults.  This said however and as we’ve averred since Oct’21’s rebound that rendered May-Aug’21’s sell-off attempt a 3-wave and thus corrective affair, the mere lateral chop and Fibonacci minimum 23.6% retrace of Mar’20 – May’21’s entire 1.9725 – 4.8880 rally is very likely a corrective/consolidative structure that warns of the eventual resumption of the secular bull market that preceded it.  Whether this current rally is THE rally that busts out above last year’s 4.8880 high remains to be seen.  But until and unless the market fails to sustain the current, clear and present uptrend with a failure below at least 4.5460 and preferably 4.4470, or closes below 11-Feb’s 4.4415 low close, it would be premature to conclude that this isn’t the rally that extends to new all-time highs straight away.

These issues considered, a cautious bullish policy and exposure are advised from current 4.6950-area prices with a failure below 4.5460 required to negate this call and warrant its cover.  In lieu of a relapse below 4.5460, further and possibly accelerated gains to new all-time highs are expected.

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