In Wed’s Technical Blog we discussed the importance of the extent and impulsiveness of this week’s earlier rally. After blowing out 10-Feb’s 4.7085 high and 18Oct21’s 4.8230 high, the only level that stands between the market and reinstating the secular bull trend is May’21’s 4.8880 all-time high. While that high remains intact, we still have to acknowledge upper-range constraints and the prospect for another disappointing intra-range relapse. But the extent and impulsiveness of this week’s rally is encouraging and increases the odds of a breakout to new all-time highs above 4.8880.
To the extent that it matters at this juncture and with 20/20 hindsight, we believe all of the past 10-months’ lateral, frustrating chop is a massive 4th-Wave triangle that ended with 24-Feb’s 4.4470 low as labeled in the daily log chart below. Such a count is academic at this point, but it nonetheless identifies that 4.4470 low as the latest larger-degree corrective low this market is now required to fail below negate this longer-term bullish count and either re-expose the massive lateral corrective range or a major reversal lower. Now-former and massive 4.82-to-460-area resistance would be fully expected to hold as new support per any broader bullish count that calls for indeterminable and potentially steep gains above 4.89.
From a shorter-term perspective detailed in the 240-min chart below, today’s clear, impulsive continuation of this week’s impressive rally leaves a minor corrective low from yesterday at 4.7140 in its wake as the latest smaller-degree corrective low this market is now minimally required to fail below to jeopardize the impulsive integrity of a more immediate bullish count. Per such, this 4.7140 level serves as our new short-term risk parameter from which traders can objectively rebase and manage the risk of a bullish policy and longs recommended at 4.6950 OB.
In sum, a bullish policy and exposure remain advised with a failure below 4.7140 required to defer or threaten a bullish count enough to warrant moving to the sidelines in order to circumvent the depths unknown of a bigger correction or reversal lower. In lieu of such weakness and especially following a break above May’21’s 4.8880 all-time high, further and possibly steep gains are anticipated.