The market has been coiling the last few weeks in anticipation of the USDA report Friday. Ethanol production came in a bit more negative yesterday, with production for the week ending Feb 1st averaging 967,000 barrels per day. This is down 4.45% vs. last week and down 8.51% vs. last year. This is also the lowest weekly production since the week October 6th of 2017. The slow production due to negative margins should give way for the USDA to lower ethanol usage by 50 to 100 million bushels in Fridays report. Yesterday was also day four of the Feb crop insurance discovery period with Dec ‘19 corn averaging $4.03 so far. This would be the highest insurance level since 2015.
Momentum studies are trending higher from mid-range, which should support a move higher if resistance levels are penetrated. Also, a close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. Resistance comes in today at 381 and 382 while support comes in at 378 ¾ and 377 ¾.
Corn Mar ’19 Daily Chart