RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

Today’s clear, decisive break above 08-Oct’s 116.48 high reinstates the secular bull market from Apr’20’s 48.35 low and marks the highest prices since Jul 2011.  This resumed long-term bull trend confirms 13-Oct’s 103.50 low as the end of a clear 3-wave and thus corrective event, reinforcing this level as the latest larger-degree corrective low and long-term risk parameter this market is required to fail below to confirm a bearish divergence in momentum of a scale sufficient to threaten the secular bull trend and warrant defensive measures by longer-term commercial players.

On a shorter-term basis and as detailed in the 240-min chart above, we believe 15-Oct’s 111.10 high defines the end of a smaller-degree 1st-Wave of the resumed bull from 103.50 and the nearest level this market needs to fail below to jeopardize the impulsive integrity of a more immediate bullish count.  Per sch and for the time being, this 111.10 level serves as our new short-term level from which shorter-term traders with tighter risk profiles can objectively rebase and manage the risk of a resumed bullish policy and exposure.

Today’s clear, decisive break above 08-Oct’s 116.48 high reinstates the secular bull market from Apr’20’s 48.35 low and marks the highest prices since Jul 2011.  This resumed long-term bull trend confirms 13-Oct’s 103.50 low as the end of a clear 3-wave and thus corrective event, reinforcing this level as the latest larger-degree corrective low and long-term risk parameter this market is required to fail below to confirm a bearish divergence in momentum of a scale sufficient to threaten the secular bull trend and warrant defensive measures by longer-term commercial players.

On a shorter-term basis and as detailed in the 240-min chart above, we believe 15-Oct’s 111.10 high defines the end of a smaller-degree 1st-Wave of the resumed bull from 103.50 and the nearest level this market needs to fail below to jeopardize the impulsive integrity of a more immediate bullish count.  Per sch and for the time being, this 111.10 level serves as our new short-term level from which shorter-term traders with tighter risk profiles can objectively rebase and manage the risk of a resumed bullish policy and exposure.

On this short-term basis, we believe the steeper rally from 21-Oct’s 108.88 low to be the minor 3rd-Wave of an eventual 5-wave sequence up.  Per such and somewhere along the line, we expect an interim (4th-Wave) corrective setback before a (5th-Wave) resumption of the sequence from 103.50.  After such price action unfolds, we’ll be able to objectively trail shorter-term bull risk to the bottom of that next interim smaller-degree correction.

Today’s clear, decisive break above 08-Oct’s 116.48 high reinstates the secular bull market from Apr’20’s 48.35 low and marks the highest prices since Jul 2011.  This resumed long-term bull trend confirms 13-Oct’s 103.50 low as the end of a clear 3-wave and thus corrective event, reinforcing this level as the latest larger-degree corrective low and long-term risk parameter this market is required to fail below to confirm a bearish divergence in momentum of a scale sufficient to threaten the secular bull trend and warrant defensive measures by longer-term commercial players.

On a shorter-term basis and as detailed in the 240-min chart above, we believe 15-Oct’s 111.10 high defines the end of a smaller-degree 1st-Wave of the resumed bull from 103.50 and the nearest level this market needs to fail below to jeopardize the impulsive integrity of a more immediate bullish count.  Per sch and for the time being, this 111.10 level serves as our new short-term level from which shorter-term traders with tighter risk profiles can objectively rebase and manage the risk of a resumed bullish policy and exposure.

On this short-term basis, we believe the steeper rally from 21-Oct’s 108.88 low to be the minor 3rd-Wave of an eventual 5-wave sequence up.  Per such and somewhere along the line, we expect an interim (4th-Wave) corrective setback before a (5th-Wave) resumption of the sequence from 103.50.  After such price action unfolds, we’ll be able to objectively trail shorter-term bull risk to the bottom of that next interim smaller-degree correction.

Today’s clear, decisive break above 08-Oct’s 116.48 high reinstates the secular bull market from Apr’20’s 48.35 low and marks the highest prices since Jul 2011.  This resumed long-term bull trend confirms 13-Oct’s 103.50 low as the end of a clear 3-wave and thus corrective event, reinforcing this level as the latest larger-degree corrective low and long-term risk parameter this market is required to fail below to confirm a bearish divergence in momentum of a scale sufficient to threaten the secular bull trend and warrant defensive measures by longer-term commercial players.

On a shorter-term basis and as detailed in the 240-min chart above, we believe 15-Oct’s 111.10 high defines the end of a smaller-degree 1st-Wave of the resumed bull from 103.50 and the nearest level this market needs to fail below to jeopardize the impulsive integrity of a more immediate bullish count.  Per sch and for the time being, this 111.10 level serves as our new short-term level from which shorter-term traders with tighter risk profiles can objectively rebase and manage the risk of a resumed bullish policy and exposure.

On this short-term basis, we believe the steeper rally from 21-Oct’s 108.88 low to be the minor 3rd-Wave of an eventual 5-wave sequence up.  Per such and somewhere along the line, we expect an interim (4th-Wave) corrective setback before a (5th-Wave) resumption of the sequence from 103.50.  After such price action unfolds, we’ll be able to objectively trail shorter-term bull risk to the bottom of that next interim smaller-degree correction.

Today’s clear, decisive break above 08-Oct’s 116.48 high reinstates the secular bull market from Apr’20’s 48.35 low and marks the highest prices since Jul 2011.  This resumed long-term bull trend confirms 13-Oct’s 103.50 low as the end of a clear 3-wave and thus corrective event, reinforcing this level as the latest larger-degree corrective low and long-term risk parameter this market is required to fail below to confirm a bearish divergence in momentum of a scale sufficient to threaten the secular bull trend and warrant defensive measures by longer-term commercial players.

On a shorter-term basis and as detailed in the 240-min chart above, we believe 15-Oct’s 111.10 high defines the end of a smaller-degree 1st-Wave of the resumed bull from 103.50 and the nearest level this market needs to fail below to jeopardize the impulsive integrity of a more immediate bullish count.  Per sch and for the time being, this 111.10 level serves as our new short-term level from which shorter-term traders with tighter risk profiles can objectively rebase and manage the risk of a resumed bullish policy and exposure.

On this short-term basis, we believe the steeper rally from 21-Oct’s 108.88 low to be the minor 3rd-Wave of an eventual 5-wave sequence up.  Per such and somewhere along the line, we expect an interim (4th-Wave) corrective setback before a (5th-Wave) resumption of the sequence from 103.50.  After such price action unfolds, we’ll be able to objectively trail shorter-term bull risk to the bottom of that next interim smaller-degree correction.

On this short-term basis, we believe the steeper rally from 21-Oct’s 108.88 low to be the minor 3rd-Wave of an eventual 5-wave sequence up.  Per such and somewhere along the line, we expect an interim (4th-Wave) corrective setback before a (5th-Wave) resumption of the sequence from 103.50.  After such price action unfolds, we’ll be able to objectively trail shorter-term bull risk to the bottom of that next interim smaller-degree correction.

From a long-term perspective, the weekly (above) and monthly (below) log scale active-continuation charts show the trend is up on all scales and should be expected to continue. As recently discussed, Sep’s bust-out above the past SEVEN YEARS’ resistance around the 96/97-handle-area exposed a vast chasm totally devoid of any technical levels of merit shy of 2011’s 219.70 all-time high.  This doesn’t mean we’re forecasting a move to 219, but it certainly does mean that until and unless the market arrests the clear and present and major uptrend with a bearish divergence in momentum below a level like 103.50, the market’s is indeterminable and potentially extreme, including a run at 219.

In both of these long-term charts we’ve identified some “derived” Fibonacci progression and retracement relationships around the 117.50-area and also the 121.50-to-123.25-area.  While interesting, they mean little if anything without an accompanying confirmed bearish divergence in momentum.

Market sentiment/contrary opinion levels are at, understandably, historically frothy levels typical of major peak/reversal environments.  However, traders are reminded that this technical indicator is not applicable in the absence of an accompanying confirmed bearish divergence in momentum.  Herein lies the importance of identifying key corrective lows and risk parameters like 103.50.

These issues considered, a bullish policy and exposure remains advised for long-term commercial players with a failure below 103.50 required to negate this continued call and warrant its cover.  Shorter-term traders whipsawed out of bullish exposure following 11-Oct’s bearish divergence in short-term momentum are advised to first approach setback attempts to 115.00 OB as corrective buying opportunities with a failure below 111.10 required to negate this specific all and warrant its cover.  In lieu of at least such sub-111.10 weakness, further and possibly protracted gains are anticipated.

RJO Market Insights

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